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A Logical Assessment Of Recession And Bear Market Odds
December 18, 2023
Since we know Fed policy works with long and variable lags, it is prudent to revisit the soft vs. hard landing question as we prepare for 2024.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Economy
Interest Rates
CoT This Week: Peeking Into The Future Thru Futures, Hedge Fund Positions
December 17, 2023
At a time like this when literally everyone seems to be on one side of the boat, surprises can spring up out of nowhere.
Via
Talk Markets
Financial Markets Report For Friday, December 15
December 15, 2023
In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Friday, December 15
Via
Talk Markets
Irrational FOMC Exuberance
December 15, 2023
High impact moves in a low VIX continue.
Via
Talk Markets
U.S. Weekly FundFlows: Money Market Funds See First Weekly Outflow In Eight Weeks
December 15, 2023
Investors were overall net sellers of fund assets (including both conventional funds and ETFs) for the first week in eight, removing a net $19.1 billion.
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: There Is Still A Job To Get Done
December 13, 2023
Market expectations of policy easing for the next year are about to get tested tonight with the Federal Reserve likely to signal that there is still a job to get done.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Rates Spark: Science Fiction?
December 07, 2023
Via
Talk Markets
"Big" Drops In Treasury Yields
December 06, 2023
Relative to where they were just over a month ago, Treasury yields are down sharply as bond prices have rallied.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Exposures
Debt Markets
How It Started. How It’s Going – Stock Market (And Sentiment Results)
December 14, 2023
A look back at what we were doing and publishing when all of the bears were out in full force. Also, an update on PYPL following their reported results.
Via
Talk Markets
Wild Swings Following The Great Fed Pivot
December 14, 2023
A look at equity and commodity responses to the Fed Policy Pivot.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Traders May Need Frequent Portfolio Adjustments In 2024: BlackRock
December 14, 2023
BlackRock Inc sees rate cuts in second half of 2024. Shape of the yield curve to be key drivers of returns. ETFs could be good investment vehicles.
Via
Benzinga
Topics
ETFs
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Risk-On Signal For Global Markets Strengthens After Fed News
December 14, 2023
The central bank left its policy rate unchanged for a third time while suggesting that a round of rate cuts is on the table for 2024.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
Fed Rate Cut Next Move – Bears Remain Embarrassingly Wrong
December 13, 2023
Post-Fed Day, stocks are supposed to pause or pull back very mildly before another assault higher.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
10-Year US Treasury Yield ‘Fair Value’ Estimate - Wednesday, Dec. 13
December 13, 2023
Today’s update of the “fair-value” model for the US 10-year Treasury yield reaffirms that the benchmark rate appears unusually high relative to the economic fundamentals.
Via
Talk Markets
Asia Morning Bites For Wednesday, December 13
December 13, 2023
The latest Tankan survey beat expectations, but Korea's unemployment rate rose. FOMC meeting later...
Via
Talk Markets
Financial Markets Report For Tuesday, December 12
December 12, 2023
In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Tuesday, December 12
Via
Talk Markets
Elliott Wave Analysis: Commodity Market
December 12, 2023
Bitcoin, Bonds, Yields, Dollar, Gold, Silver, Iron Ore, Copper, Uranium, Crude Oil, Natural Gas.
Via
Talk Markets
Exposures
Fossil Fuels
Are Markets Sleepwalking Into Powell’s Presser Tomorrow?
December 12, 2023
Stocks are seeing positive signs such as semiconductors breaking out to new multi-year highs.
Via
Talk Markets
Gold Stocks: A Meeting With Michelangelo
December 12, 2023
The H&S formation on the GDX chart is magnificent. In a nutshell, the incredibly bullish pattern for the miners looks like it was carved into gold bull era marble by Michelangelo himself.
Via
Talk Markets
Soft US CPI Today Paves Way For Fed Pivot Tomorrow
December 12, 2023
The US dollar is trading softer against all the G10 currencies ahead of what is expected to be a soft November CPI report, which paves the way for a pivot by the FOMC tomorrow.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Economy
Exposures
Interest Rates
BOJ Speculation Unwound, Taking The Yen Lower
December 11, 2023
Many participants seemed to exaggerate the risks of a BOJ move next week and the dollar continued its recovery that began ahead of the weekend.
Via
Talk Markets
Speculator Extremes: Brazil Real & 2-Year Bond Lead Bullish & Bearish Positions
December 11, 2023
The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is currently at a 99.7 percent score of its 3-year range.
Via
Talk Markets
AI Forecast: Efficient Forecasting Segments Of The Financial Market By AI
December 10, 2023
Based on our analysis, all financial assets, to varying degrees (with the exception of VIX, the volatility index), exhibit long-term patterns, allowing for the application of machine learning methods.
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Artificial Intelligence
Stocks
Exposures
Artificial Intelligence
US Equities
CoT Report Analysis: What Large Specs, Noncommercials Are Buying
December 10, 2023
Non-commercials remain committed to gold for now, with net longs highest since April last year. If gold fails to regain momentum soon, these traders can decide to move on.
Via
Talk Markets
Financial Markets Report For Friday, December 8
December 08, 2023
In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Friday, December 8.
Via
Talk Markets
Investing In 2024 And Beyond
December 08, 2023
Following the monthly labor report (NFP), the S&P 500 printed a new high for 2023. Numerous macro fundamental factors have shifted in recent years, telling us it is important to adjust to the new world...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Stocks
Exposures
US Equities
If We See Stock Market Mean Reversion, Heads Will Spin
December 07, 2023
Companies that paid no dividend just had the greatest 20-year bout of outperformance over the biggest dividend payers on record.
Via
Talk Markets
Financial Markets Report For Wednesday, December 6
December 06, 2023
In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Wednesday, December 6.
Via
Talk Markets
Rates Spark: Pressure At The Extremities
December 06, 2023
The fair value number for the US 10yr yield is 4%, but we really need to see Friday's payroll numbers first. The bond market is screaming at us that it'll be weak. But unless validated, the rally seen...
Via
Talk Markets
Topics
Bonds
Exposures
Debt Markets
Financial Markets Report For Tuesday, December 5
December 06, 2023
In this video, Ira Epstein reviews the activity in the Financial Markets after the day that just ended, Tuesday, December 5.
Via
Talk Markets
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