Filed by: Suncor Energy Inc.
Pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended
Subject Company: Canadian Oil Sands Limited
Form F-80 File No.: 333-207268
Explanatory Note: The following written presentation materials were first used by Suncor Energy Inc. on November 10, 2015.
(Presentation materials begin on the following page.)
Suncor's
proposed acquisition of Canadian Oil Sands Limited
Information for Canadian Oil Sands Limited (COS) Shareholders Dated November 10, 2015 All amounts in this presentation are in Canadian dollars (unless otherwise noted). Please review Advisories
section. Building on 50 years of oil sands experience
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Advisories
NOTICE TO U.S. HOLDERS
THE SUNCOR COMMON SHARES OFFERED AS CONSIDERATION IN THE OFFER DOCUMENTS HAVE NOT BEEN
APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED BY THE UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION (SEC) OR ANY U.S. STATE SECURITIES COMMISSION NOR
HAS THE SEC OR ANY U.S. STATE SECURITIES COMMISSION PASSED UPON THE ACCURACY OR ADEQUACY OF THE OFFER DOCUMENTS. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS A CRIMINAL OFFENSE. Shareholders should be aware that, during the period of the Offer, Suncor or its affiliates, directly or indirectly, may bid for or make
purchases of Suncor common shares or Shares, or certain related securities,
as permitted by applicable law or regulations of the United States, Canada
or its provinces or territories. On October 5, 2015, Suncor filed a
registration statement on Form F-80, which includes the Offer Documents, with the SEC in respect of the Offer. This presentation is not a substitute for such registration statement or any other documents that Suncor has filed or may file with the
SEC or send to shareholders in connection with the Offer. INVESTORS AND
SHAREHOLDERS ARE URGED TO READ THE REGISTRATION STATEMENT ON FORM F-80,
AS IT MAY BE AMENDED FROM TIME TO TIME, AND ALL OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS FILED OR TO BE FILED WITH THE SEC IN CONNECTION WITH THE OFFER AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE, AS WELL AS ANY AMENDMENTS OR
SUPPLEMENTS TO THOSE DOCUMENTS, BECAUSE THEY CONTAIN OR WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT
INFORMATION. You will be able to obtain a free copy of the registration
statement on Form F-80, as well as other filings containing information about Suncor, at the SEC's website (www.sec.gov). 2 The Offer (as defined herein) described in the Offer Documents (as defined herein) is being made for the securities of a Canadian issuer
by a Canadian issuer that is permitted, under a multijurisdictional
disclosure system adopted by the United States, to prepare the Offer
Documents in accordance with the disclosure requirements of Canada. Shareholders in the
United States should be aware that such requirements are different from
those of the United States. The financial statements included or incorporated by reference in the Offer Documents have been prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, and are subject to Canadian auditing
and auditor independence standards, and thus may not be comparable to financial
statements of U.S. companies. Shareholders in the United States should be aware that the disposition of their Shares (as defined herein) and the acquisition of Suncor
common shares by them as described in the Offer Documents may have tax
consequences both in the United States and in Canada. Such consequences for
shareholders who are resident in, or citizens of, the United States may not be described fully in the Offer Documents. The enforcement by shareholders of civil liabilities under U.S. federal securities laws may be affected adversely by the fact that each of
Suncor Energy Inc. (Suncor) and Canadian Oil Sands Limited
(COS) are incorporated under the laws of Canada, that some or all of their respective officers and directors may be residents of a foreign country, that some or all of the experts named in the Offer
Documents may be residents of a foreign country and that all or a substantial portion of
the assets of Suncor and COS and said persons may be located outside the
United States. |
entirety by
reference to the complete text of the Offer Documents. The Offer Documents contain important information that should be read carefully before any decision is made with respect to the Offer. 3 Advisories (continued) OFFER DOCUMENTS This presentation does not constitute an offer to buy or sell, or an invitation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, any securities of
Suncor or COS. The exchange offer (the Offer) by Suncor to purchase the COS common shares and any accompanying rights (together, the Shares) in
exchange for common shares of Suncor is being made exclusively by means of,
and subject to the terms and conditions set out in, the Offer to Purchase and
Take-Over Bid Circular dated October 5, 2015, as it may be amended from time to time, along with the accompanying Letter of Transmittal, Notice of Guaranteed Delivery and other related Offer materials (collectively, the Offer Documents). While Suncor expects that the Offer will be made to all COS shareholders, the Offer will not be made or directed to, nor will deposits of Shares be accepted from or on behalf of, holders of
Shares in any jurisdiction in which the making or acceptance of the Offer
would not be in compliance with the laws of such jurisdiction. However, Suncor may, in its sole discretion, take such action as it may deem necessary to extend the Offer to holders of Shares in any such jurisdiction. The information provided in this presentation is a summary only, does not
purport to be complete and is qualified in its Certain
information contained in this presentation has been taken from or is based on COS documents that have been publicly filed on SEDAR under COS' profile at www.sedar.com.
Suncor has not had access to the non-public books and records of COS and Suncor is
not in a position to independently assess or verify certain of the information in COS' publicly filed documents, including the financial and reserves information reproduced herein. COS has not reviewed this presentation and has not confirmed the
accuracy and completeness of the information in respect of COS contained
herein. As a result, all historical information regarding COS included in this presentation, including all of its financial and reserves information and the pro forma financial and reserves information reflecting the pro forma effects of a combination of Suncor and COS has been derived, by
necessity, from COS' public reports and securities filings on SEDAR.
While Suncor has no reason to believe that such publicly filed information is inaccurate or incomplete, Suncor does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. The information provided in this presentation is a summary only, does not purport to be complete and is qualified in its entirety by reference to
the complete text of the Offer Documents. The Offer Documents contain
important information that should be read carefully before any decision is made with respect to the Offer. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the United States Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation (collectively, forward-looking statements), including statements
about the Offer (including the proposed transaction summary
(consideration, key metrics, pro forma ownership and key conditions and timing) and the expected COS shareholder potential benefits and expected pro forma benefits); our belief that our offer is full and fair valued; Suncors expected future growth projects; synergies, savings, and commitments to the Syncrude
project; Suncors anticipated future production growth; reserve life
for each entity; capital expenditures; the NYMEX CL Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures contract settlement prices as presented on slides herein; and expectations with respect to dividends, share repurchases and future oil exposure, which are based on Suncors current expectations, estimates, projections
and assumptions that were made by Suncor in light of its experience and
its perception of historical trends. Some of the forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as estimates, plans, goal, strategy, expects,
continue, may, will, outlook, and
similar expressions. In addition, all other statements and other information that address the Offer (including satisfaction of the Offer conditions, those relating to the tax treatment of shareholders, the expected timing of the consummation of the Offer, and certain strategic and financial benefits
and operational and cost efficiencies expected to result from the
consummation of the Offer) are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some that are similar to other oil and gas companies and some that are unique to Suncor. Users of this information are
cautioned that actual results may differ materially as a result of, among
other things, assumptions regarding expected synergies and reduced operating expenditures; volatility of and assumptions regarding oil and gas prices; assumptions regarding timing of commissioning and start-up of capital projects; fluctuations in currency and interest rates; product supply
and demand; market competition; risks inherent in marketing operations
(including credit risks); imprecision of production and reserves estimates and estimates of recoverable quantities of oil, natural gas and liquids from Suncors properties; the ability to access external sources of debt and equity capital; the timing and the costs of well and pipeline construction;
assumptions regarding the timely receipt of regulatory and other
approvals; the ability to secure adequate product transportation; changes in royalty, tax, environmental and other laws or regulations or the interpretations of such laws or regulations; applicable political and economic conditions; the risk of war, hostilities, civil insurrection, political instability and terrorist
threats; assumptions regarding OPEC production quotas; and risks
associated with existing and potential future lawsuits and regulatory actions. (
Continued) |
4 Advisories (continued) ($ millions) Total September 30 2015 June 30 2015 Mar 31 2015 Dec 31 2014 Cash flow provided by operating activities 7 456 2 771 1 794 876 2 015 Increase (decrease) in non-cash working capital (452) (889) 361 599 (523) Cash flow from operations 7 004 1 882 2 155 1 475 1 492 All figures and descriptions provided herein related to the proposed transaction, including those around consideration, key metrics, pro forma ownership, reasons for the Offer, potential benefits to Suncor and COS shareholder and expected pro forma benefits are based on and assume the following: (i) Suncors and COS'
dividends, debt, liquidity, credit ratings, debt costs and assets
(including reserves) will not in any way change from what was the case on October 29, 2015, in the case of Suncor, and from what Suncor ascertained from COS' public filings on SEDAR up to and including October 29, 2015, in the case of COS, and in the case of reserves, those reported by Suncor and COS in their
most recent annual information forms as
at December 31, 2014; (ii) 484.6 million common shares of COS issued and outstanding immediately prior to the closing of the Offer; (iii) that all of the Shares are tendered to the Offer pursuant to the terms thereof; and (iv) no other Suncor common shares or common shares of COS are issued before closing of the Offer.
Although Suncor believes that the expectations represented by such
forward-looking statements are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Suncors managements discussion and analysis (MD&A) for the period ended September 30, 2015 (the Third Quarter
MD&A) and dated October 28, 2015, 2014 Annual Report and
its most recently filed Annual Information Form/Form 40-F and other documents it
files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities describe the risks, uncertainties, material assumptions and other factors that could influence actual results and such factors are incorporated herein by reference. Copies of these
documents are available without charge from Suncor at 150 6th Avenue
S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3E3, by calling 1-800-558-9071, or by email request to info@suncor.com or by referring to the companys profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com or EDGAR at www.sec.gov. Except as required by applicable securities laws, Suncor disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly
update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result
of new information, future events or otherwise. Suncors actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by its forward looking statements, so readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on them. Certain financial measures in this presentation namely cash flow from operations, free cash flow and free cash flow per share are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). All non-GAAP measures presented herein do not have any standardized meaning and therefore are
unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other
companies. Therefore, these non-GAAP measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. All non-GAAP measures are included because management uses the information to analyze business performance, leverage and liquidity and
therefore may be considered useful information by investors.
Cash flow from operations for Suncor for each of the four quarters ended
below is defined and reconciled to the GAAP measure of cash flow provided by operating activities for the corresponding period below. Free cash flows and free cash flows per share for Suncor and COS for 2012, 2013, 2014 and the nine months ended
September 30, 2015 are defined and reconciled on slide 13.
The financial and operating performance of Suncor and its reportable
operating segments and the timing and terms upon which the Offer may be consummated, if at all, may be affected by a number of factors. Many of these risk factors and other assumptions related to Suncors forward-looking statements
and information are discussed in further detail throughout the Offer
Documents, the Third Quarter MD&A, and in Suncors 2014 annual MD&A, 2014 Annual Information Form and Form 40-F on file with Canadian securities commissions at www.sedar.com and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov, and readers should refer to such risk factors and other statements in evaluating the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation.
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5 Advisories (continued) RESERVES Unless noted otherwise, reserves information presented herein is presented as working interests (operated and non-operated) share before
deduction of royalties and without including any royalty interests, is at
December 31, 2014, and is rounded to the nearest hundred million barrels of oil or barrels of oil equivalent (boe). For more information on Suncors reserves, including definitions of proved and probable reserves, Suncors interest, location of the reserves and the product types reasonably expected
therefrom, please see Suncors most recent Annual Information Form
available at www.sedar.com and www.sec.gov. For more information on COS' reserves, see COS' most recent Annual Information Form available at
www.sedar.com. Certain oil and gas reserves presented in this presentation have been prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"), which has been adopted by securities regulatory authorities in Canada and imposes oil and gas disclosure standards for Canadian public issuers
engaged in oil and gas activities that differ from the oil and gas
disclosure standards of the SEC under Subpart 1200 of Regulation S-K. The SEC definitions of proved and probable reserves are different than the definitions contained in NI 51-101. Therefore, proved and probable reserves disclosed herein in compliance with NI 51-101 are not comparable to those disclosed by
U.S. companies in reports filed with the SEC. Moreover, as permitted by
NI 51-101, the Offeror has determined and disclosed its reserves and the related net present value of future net revenue from its reserves in its NI 51-101 compliant reserves disclosure using forecast prices and costs. In contrast, the SEC requires that reserves and related future net revenue be estimated
based on historical 12 month average prices rather than forecast prices,
but permits the optional disclosure of future net revenue estimates based on different price and cost criteria, including standardized future prices or management's own forecasts. Consequently, the oil and gas reserves estimates presented herein are prepared in accordance with NI 51-101 are not comparable to
oil and gas reserve estimates provided by U.S. companies in their filings
with the SEC. BOE Barrels of oil equivalent (boe) - Certain natural gas volumes have been converted to barrels of oil on the basis of six thousand cubic feet
to one boe. This industry convention is not indicative of relative market
values, and thus may be misleading. |
6 Consideration Suncor is offering to acquire Canadian Oil Sands Limited (TSX: COS) in an all share transaction valued at approximately $6.9 billion 1 Exchange ratio of 0.25 of a Suncor share per COS share Implied acquisition price 2 of $9.73/COS share represents a substantial: 57% premium to COS' unaffected share price of $6.19 on October 2, 2015 49% premium to COS' unaffected 30-day volume-weighted average share price of $6.54 as at October 2, 2015 Key metrics Enterprise Value 5 /2P Reserves 6 of $4.31/boe Cost per flowing barrel 7 of $76,800 Pro Forma ownership At closing, COS shareholders are expected to own ~7.7% of Suncor Suncor working interest in Syncrude would increase to 48.74% Key conditions and timing Tender period of 60 days and structured as a permitted bid under COS'
shareholder approved rights plan
No due diligence requirements prior to closing Customary regulatory approvals Proposed transaction summary (1) Includes equity consideration of approximately $4.7 billion as of October 30, 2015 and net debt of approximately $2.2 billion as of September 30, 2015. (2) Based on the closing price of Suncor shares on the TSX on October 30, 2015. (3) Equity Value is defined as the number of Suncor common shares offered to COS shareholders pursuant to the Offer multiplied by the closing price of Suncors common shares on the TSX on October 30, 2015 (the Equity Value).
(4) COS' trailing 12 month cash from operating activities ended September 30, 2015. (5) Enterprise value is defined as the Equity Value plus COS total debt minus its cash and cash equivalents, as at September 30, 2015 (the
Enterprise Value).
(6) 2P Reserves are COS proved and probable (2P) reserves. Reserves are presented as working interest (operated and non-operated) share before
deduction of royalties
and without including any royalty interests, and as of December 31, 2014. See Reserves in the Advisories.
(7) The Enterprise Value divided by 90,285 bbls/d, COS' average daily volumes for the nine months ended September 30, 2015.
Equity Value 3 /Cash Flow 4 multiple of 7.5 |
7 Premium All share offer at a substantial share price premium to October 2, 2015 close Dividend Opportunity for cash dividend increase for COS shareholders Suncor has a solid record of growth and sustainability Savings Elimination of redundant administration costs Improved governance Quality Strong investment grade balance sheet, greater financial liquidity Large, diverse and integrated oil-focused portfolio of assets Operating Experience Superior reliability of assets Operating for five decades in the oil sands Integration Midstream and downstream assets and expertise enable superior price realization Upside Continued leverage to oil price and long-life, low decline assets Canadas leading integrated energy company Why this Offer makes sense |
8 WTI right scale COS left scale NYMEX CL Light Sweet Crude Oil futures contract settlement prices as at April 9, 2015 as at October 30, 2015 Suncor-COS discussion history (1) Price determined by the ratio of 0.32 Suncor/COS shares, based upon the March 31, 2015 Suncor closing price. (2) Price determined by the ratio of 0.25 Suncor/COS shares, based upon the October 30, 2015 Suncor closing price. Dec 2015 2016 2017 First Suncor - COS Discussion March 6 Second COS rejection letter April 16 First Suncor expression of interest letter March 9 First COS rejection letter March 13 2018 2019 Futures are down ~15% since April 9 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $0 $3 $6 $9 $12 $15 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Second meeting and implied offer value 1 of $11.84/share April 9 Implied offer value 2 of $9.73/share a 57% premium to COS close on October 2, 2015 compared to a 24% increase in the four year futures strip (Dec. 2015 2019 average) |
(1) Based on Suncors closing price of $38.91 per share on the TSX on October 30, 2015 and COS' pre-offer closing price of
$6.19 per share on the TSX as at October 2, 2015.
(2) Based on Suncors and COS' current quarterly dividends. (3) Estimate is before tax and based on COS' 2014 general administration expenses. (4) 5% is inclusive of 2015 to 2019, and assumes Suncor maintains current production levels and Hebron and Fort Hills ramp up on schedule (as
disclosed by Suncor). See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (5) Based on production for the nine months ended September 30, 2015 and shares outstanding as at September 30, 2015.
(6) The Enterprise Value (as described on slide 6) divided by 90,285 bbls/d, COS' average daily volumes for the nine months ended September 30, 2015.
(7) Reserves are presented as working interest (operated and non-operated) share before deduction of royalties and without including any royalty
interests, and as of December 31, 2014. See Reserves in the Advisories. (8)
Net debt is defined as total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Capitalization is
defined as total debt plus the book value of shareholders equity. Pro forma as at September 30, 2015. 9 Significant benefits COS shareholder potential benefits Expected Pro Forma benefits 57% upfront premium 1 45% 2 Tax- Deferred $25M administration cost 3 99% and retained 50 years oil sands experience ~5% 4 Investment Grade 6.7% Production increase per Suncor share, pro forma 5 $76,800 Competitive cost per flowing barrel 6 Increased Integration and marketing synergies Low Cost of integration Continued Strong operational performance 9.1 billion Long-life, low decline 2P reserves 7 19% Low leverage maintained net debt/capitalization 8 10X Increased liquidity value of SU to COS shares traded in the three months prior to the offer intended to enable tax-deferred rollover |
10 Participate in Canadas leading integrated energy company Suncor - A growing business with complementary upstream & downstream operations $61B Enterprise value 1 September 30, 2015 576 000 99% oil production boe/d for the nine months ended Sep. 30, 2015 Refining capacity bbls/d as at September 30, 2015 462 000 Liquidity Cash & cash equivalents ($5.4 billion) plus unutilized credit facilities as at September 30, 2015 $12.3B Cash flow from operations 4 Trailing 12 months as at September 30, 2015 $7.0B Capital expenditures 2015 Guidance midpoint excluding capitalized interest $6.1B East Coast North Sea Stavanger London Aberdeen Buzzard Golden Eagle Denver Sarnia Montreal St. Johns Hibernia Terra Nova* Hebron White Rose Fort McMurray Base Plant & Mine* Firebag* Syncrude pro forma MacKay River* Fort Hills* Oil Sands Head office Calgary Regional office Upstream facility *operated Downstream facility Mississauga Circles are scaled to relative net capacities in boe/d Edmonton (1) Market capitalization plus total debt minus cash and cash equivalents. (2) As at December 31, 2014 and assumes that 7.5 billion boe of proved and probable reserves are produced at a rate of 534,900 boe/d, Suncors
average daily production rate in 2014. Reserves are presented as working
interest (operated and non-operated) share before deduction of royalties and without including any royalty interests, and as of December 31, 2014. See Reserves in the Advisories. (3) 5% is inclusive of 2015 to 2019, and assumes Suncor maintains current production levels and Hebron and Fort Hills ramp up on schedule (as
disclosed by Suncor). See Forward-Looking Statements in the Advisories. (4) CFOPs is a non-GAAP measure. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories for a reconciliation of cash flow from operations to cash flow provided by operating activities, a GAAP measure. Expected average annual five year production growth 3 ~5% 38 years 2P reserve life index 2 |
11 Suncors business model is robust even with lower oil prices Cash flow is well in excess of dividends and sustaining capital Sustainment level $2.9B Dividends $1.2B Sustaining capital $1.7B Available to enhance returns $2.6B Growth capital $3.0B 2 Nine months ended September 30, 2015 ($Billions) Cash Flow $5.5B
cash flow that is substantially higher than dividends and sustaining capital requirements
Credit unutilized lines $6.9B Cash & cash equivalents $5.4B As at September 30, 2015 ($Billions)
resulting in continued healthy cash balances and total liquidity Upgrader utilization Nine months ended September 30, 2015 (excludes Syncrude) Refinery utilization Nine months ended September 30, 2015 In Situ utilization 1 Nine months ended September 30, 2015 Strong operational discipline has driven
94% 94% 97% (1) Based on 180,000 barrels per day of capacity for Firebag plus 38,000 barrels per day of capacity for MacKay River.
(2) Includes $318 million of capitalized interest. |
29¢ quarterly dividend >20% year dividend CAGR 1 13 years $5.3B -2014 >10% $250 million 3 Suncor - A strong track record of returning cash to shareholders 12 (1) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR). (2) Based on the weighted average number of shares outstanding in each year for 2011 to 2014 and as at September 30, 2015 in the case of 2015, and
assumes a quarterly dividend going forward of $0.29 per share (subject to
approval by Suncors Board of Directors). (3)
Targeted following completion of the Offer, subject to market conditions and assumes
bid is completed in sufficient time to continue purchases. The figure
includes $40 million worth of shares repurchased in the three months ended September
30, 2015. Repurchases per share
2 Dividends per share 2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e Q1 2016e 0.32 0.94 1.12 1.14 0.43 0.50 0.73 1.02 1.14 e = estimated 0.17 |
13 (1) Free cash flow, free cash flow per share and cash flow from operations are non-GAAP measures. See Non-GAAP Measures in the Advisories. (2) Figures are divided by the weighted average number of shares outstanding in each period for each respective company.
Suncor has generated superior free cash flow
Suncor free cash flow 1 per share 2 COS free cash flow 1 per share 2 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nine months ended Sep. 30 1.80 1.76 1.43 1.02 0.01 0.36 -0.17 0.61 Free cash flow 1 reconciliation Nine months ended Sept. 30 Suncor ($ millions) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cash flow provided by operating activities 8 859 10 100 8 936 5 441 Increase (decrease) in non-cash working capital 874 ( 688) 122 71 Cash flow from operations 1 9 733 9 412 9 058 5 512 Capital and exploration expenditures (6 957) (6 777) (6 961) (4 637) Free cash flow 1 2 776 2 635 2 097 875 Weighted average number of shares outstanding (millions) 1 545 1 501 1 462 1 445 Free cash flow 1 per share 2 (dollars) 1.80 1.76 1.43 0.61 Canadian Oil Sands ($ millions) Cash flow provided by (used in) operating activities 1 864 1 583 745 315 Increase (decrease) in non-cash working capital ( 283) ( 236) 361 ( 87) Cash flow from operations 1 1 581 1 347 1 106 228 Capital and exploration expenditures (1 086) (1 342) ( 930) ( 312) Free cash flow 1 495 5 176 ( 84) Weighted average number of shares outstanding (millions) 485 485 485 485 Free cash flow 1 per share 2 (dollars) 1.02 0.01 0.36 (0.17) 1 |
Dividend
growth comparison 14
(1) Global peers in alphabetical order, not necessarily as they appear in the chart: Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, Apache Corporation, COS, Cenovus
Energy Inc., Chesapeake Energy Corporation, Chevron Corporation, Canadian
Natural Resources Limited, ConocoPhillips Co., Devon Energy Corporation,
Encana Corporation, Enersis S.A., EOG Resources Inc., Exxon Mobil Corporation, Hess Corporation, Husky Energy Inc., Imperial Oil Limited, Marathon Oil Corporation, Murphy Oil Corporation, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, Royal Dutch Shell P.L.C. and Total S.A.
(2) Includes distributions on COS predecessors trust units prior to December 31, 2010.
Five Year Dividend/Distribution Growth
September 2010 to September 2015
190% Global peers -100% 0% 100% 200% -90% 2 1 1 |
Five Year
Total Shareholder Returns including reinvested dividends
15 Suncor 17% COS 36% Net Debt to Capitalization as at September 30, 2015 Delivering for equity holders while maintaining a strong balance sheet Suncor Pro Forma 19% (1) Source: Bloomberg, from October 3, 2010 to October 2, 2015 inclusive.
(2) Net debt is defined as total debt less cash and cash equivalents. Capitalization is
defined as total debt plus the book value of shareholders equity.
Suncor +15% COS -69% TSX Capped Energy Index -32% Marginal credit profile Strong credit profile 1 2 |
$103 $108 $114 $106 $92 $100 $99 $63 16 (1) Current and pro forma percentages are based on boe production for the nine months ended September 30, 2015.
(2) North America Onshore and Libya. (3) Suncors gross revenues net of royalties less purchases of crude oil and products and less transportation, divided by upstream
production. All figures rounded to the nearest dollar.
Exposure to oil price upside
Suncor production Current Pro Forma 1 99% Oil SCO 60% Offshore 20% Bitumen 19% 99% Oil SCO 66% Offshore 17% Bitumen 16% Other 1% Exposure to global oil price Suncor integrated realizations per boe COS light sweet SCO per barrel Brent C$ per barrel 2015 Nine months ended September 30 2012 2013 2014 $112 $112 $109 $72 1 2 3 1% Other 2 |
17 (1) Reserves are presented as working interest (operated and non-operated) share before deduction of royalties and without including any royalty
interests, and
as of December 31, 2014. See Reserves in the Advisories.
(2) As at December 31, 2014 and assumes that approximately 7.5 billion boe of proved and probable reserves (2P) are produced at a rate of 534,900
boe/d, Suncors average daily production rate in 2014.
(3) As at December 31, 2014 and assumes that approximately 1.6 billion boe of proved and probable reserves (2P) are produced at a rate of 94,557 boe/d, COS' average daily production rate in 2014. (4) Excludes Libya and North American Onshore production. (5) Compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Larger, world class reserve base and expected production growth Both companies have long-life, low decline reserves Billions of Boe 1 Suncor offers attractive production growth with the benefits of diversification Thousands of barrels per day 4.7 1P Suncor 0.7 1P COS 7.5 2P 1.6 2P 38 years RLI 1,2 46 years RLI 1,3 Suncor 4 Offshore 454 505 524 570 106 98 95 90 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nine months ended September 30 Synthetic crude oil Bitumen sales COS Synthetic crude oil |
Suncor brings
strong operating experience 18
Upgrader utilization SCO barrels produced divided by 350,000 barrels per day 1 2015 Nine months ended September 30 Suncor Syncrude (1) Nameplate capacity of both the Syncrude and Suncor upgrading complexes is 350,000 barrels per day.
(2) Based on mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production for the six months ended June 30, 2015. Source: Alberta Energy Regulator.
(3) Based on thermally produced bitumen volumes for the six months ended June 30, 2015. Source: Alberta Energy Regulator.
(4) Based on refining & marketing net earnings per barrel of capacity versus Suncors peers. See note 1 on slide 19.
50 Years Operating experience in the oil sands Largest Miner and upgrader 2 Largest In situ producer 3 Most profitable North American refiner 4 Continuous Improvement Operational excellence management system Innovation Advancing new technologies 2012 2013 2014 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% |
Benefits of
integration from Suncors downstream 19
80% 90% 100% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Refinery utilization vs. US average Percent of refining capacity Suncor US average 2 2015 Nine months ended September 30 R&M Net Earnings 1 US$/bbl of capacity Suncor 2015 Nine months ended September 30 High Average Low Peers 1 0 5 10 15 2011 2012 2013 2014 Suncors downstream is an industry leader in profitability and reliability The integrated business model has enabled Suncor to capture margins across the value chain and maximize the value of Oil Sands production Integration mitigates crude oil price differential volatility and provides downside protection in a low commodity price environment (1) Net earnings per barrel of capacity. Peers consist of Alon USA Energy, Inc., CVR Refining, LP, the U.S. downstream divisions of Chevron
Corporation and Exxon Mobil Corporation, HollyFrontier Corporation, the
downstream divisions of Imperial Oil Limited and Husky Energy Inc., Marathon Petroleum Corporation, PBF Energy Inc., Phillips 66 Company, Tesoro Corporation, United Refining Company, Valero Energy Corporation and Western Refining, Inc. United Refining Company had not reported third quarter 2015 net earnings
as of November 6, 2015 and was thus excluded from the figure for the nine
months ended September 30, 2015. Suncor, CVR Refining, LP and Husky Energy Inc. report net earnings on a first-in-first-out inventory valuation basis, while other peers report on a last-in-first-out basis and therefore
Suncors net earnings in a given period may not be comparable to
those peers. (2)
Source: US Energy Information Administration. |
20 Suncor is the largest operator in the oil sands Syncrude Fort Hills Voyageur South Millennium & Steepbank Mines Lewis Firebag Mackay River Suncor & other JV properties Syncrude properties Experience Brings strong operating experience to governance of Syncrude Board and Management Committee Commitment Would commit additional experienced personnel to work with operator on reliability and long-term strategic decision making Synergies Explore regional synergies with respect to operations, capital investment and technology |
21 Suncor is offering compelling value to COS shareholders Substantial premium to pre-Offer Equity Value (+57%) 1 Significant opportunity for cash dividend increase (+45%)
2 with a track record of delivering increasing returns to shareholders Participation in Suncors anticipated growth
and shareholder value
creation Continued exposure to oil price recovery Intended to enable tax-deferred
rollover on closing
Expected elimination of $25 million
administration costs
annually
Simplified and enhanced Syncrude
governance
With a 48.74% working interest in Syncrude, Suncor would commit
additional experienced personnel to work closely
with the operator to improve reliability and long-term strategic decision making Increased liquidity, stronger balance sheet and improved credit profile
Capture regional synergies associated with Suncors midstream and downstream asset base and profitable integrated model (1) Based on the closing price of the Suncor shares on the TSX on October 30, 2015. (2) Based on Suncors and COS' current quarterly dividends. |
22 Current tender process, timing and instructions (subject to change)
Offer open for 60 days, expiring December 4, 2015 Registered COS shareholders wanting to benefit from the Offer must complete and deliver
Letter of Transmittal and share certificates to Depositary
Beneficial (i.e. non-registered) COS shareholders must contact their broker, financial
institution or other entity that holds their Shares to tender to the Offer
Questions can be direct to:
Toll Free in North America Outside North America Suncor Investor Relations Offer@suncor.com 1-800-558-9071 403-296-9068 Information
Agent: D.F. King Canada Inquiries@dfking.com 1-866-521-4427 201-806-7301 Dealer
Managers: J.P. Morgan Securities Canada Inc. CIBC World Markets Inc. 1-888-270-2178 1-844-670-8949 403-532-2134 416-956-3001 Depository:
Computer Share Investor Services
CorporateActions @computershare.com 1-800-564-6253 514-982-7555 |
23 Appendix |
24 Frequently asked questions Is Suncor comfortable increasing its exposure to oil sands, particularly to an asset that has experienced weak operational performance? Oil sands is at the very core of Suncor. We bring five decades of oil sands experience to the table.
We have steadily improved the reliability and profitability of our own mining and upgrading operations which are similar and adjacent to those of Syncrude. We expect to improve the governance of Syncrude and continue to support the operator in achieving lower
costs and increased reliability, following a successful offer.
On what information is Suncors
offer for Canadian Oil Sands
based? As an existing owner of 12% of Syncrude, Suncor has access to the same information as COS and every
other Syncrude owner.
COS chairs the Syncrude committees where this information is tabled (see page 9 of COS 2014 Annual Information Form). All material information we are aware of has been made public. How does Suncors offer for COS compare to what it recently paid for an additional 10% working interest in Fort Hills? Suncor is offering significantly more for COS ownership stake in Syncrude $76,800 1 per flowing barrel at Syncrude versus $56,000 2 per flowing barrel at Fort Hills. We value assets on their free cash flow profiles, however, and not on a cost per flowing barrel basis.
Fort Hills is a brand new asset, operated by Suncor, that is expected to produce a high quality pipeline-ready bitumen at operating and sustaining capital costs that are expected to be much lower than Syncrudes. Has Suncor factored the value of Lease 29 into its bid? We believe our bid includes full and fair value for all of COS assets and liabilities. Lease 29 is an asset that belongs to Syncrude. Its important to note that any decision to sell a Syncrude
lease requires support from other Syncrude owners who would have to align on
appropriate value, regardless of Suncors ownership
stake. Will Suncor increase its offer?
On October 5, 2015, Suncor made a full and fair offer which includes: A 57% premium to COS pre-offer closing price 3 A 45% cash dividend uplift 4 An all share deal that is intended to enable a tax-deferred rollover Ownership of Suncor shares that will provide continued exposure to oil prices. (1) Assumes $6.9 billion total consideration for COS divided by 90,285 bbls/d, COS' average daily volumes for the nine months ended September 30,
2015. (2)
Based on $1.0 billion total consideration for 10% of Fort Hills divided by 18,000 barrels per day (Suncor press release dated September 21, 2015). (3) Based on the closing price of the Suncor shares on the TSX on October 30, 2015. (4) Based on Suncors and COS' current quarterly dividends. |
25 Syncrude Overview Operations Located near Fort McMurray, AB, adjacent to Suncor Base Operations Operates oil sands mines and an upgrading complex Products Produces a single high quality, light, sweet, synthetic crude oil (SCO) blend referred to as Syncrude Sweet Premium (SSP) Structure & Control Syncrude Canada Limited (SCL) is the operator Change in operatorship requires unanimous support of the owners Imperial Oil Limited (IOL) provides a wide range of management and other services to SCL under a Management Services Agreement (MSA) Termination of the MSA requires 24 months notice by either IOL or by a vote of three non-affiliated partners with at least 51% interest in SCL Capacity Nameplate capacity of 350,000 barrels per day Reserves 4.4 billion barrels of 2P reserves 2P reserve life of 46 years Syncrude Joint Venture ownership Suncor Energy Ventures Partnership Canadian Oil Sands Partnership #1 Imperial Oil Resources Sinopec Oil Sands Partnership Nexen Oil Sands Partnership Murphy Oil Company Ltd. Mocal Energy Limited 12.0% 36.74% 25.0% 9.03% 7.23% 5.0% 5.0% (1) Clauses 909 and 910 (pages 62-64A) of the Syncrude Project Ownership and Management Agreement dated February 4, 1975 as filed on SEDAR by COS on March 28, 2008. (2) Management Service Agreement (pages 14-15) of COS 2014 Annual Information Form. (3) Represents the reserves of Syncrude, and is based on COS' reported reserves and interest in Syncrude. See Reserves in the Advisories.
(4) Assumes that the approximately 4.4 billion barrels of proved and probable reserves are produced at a rate of 257,368 boe/d, Syncrudes
average daily production
rate in 2014, based on numbers reported by COS.
4 3 1 1,2 |
26 Notes |
27 Notes |
Visit us
at the Investor Centre on Suncor.com
1-800-558-9071
offer@suncor.com For additional information regarding the Offer, please visit: www.suncorofferforcanadianoilsands.com Investor Relations Contacts Steve Douglas Leigh MacComb Samantha Enns Vice President IR Analyst IR Associate IR 28 |