—‘Suppliers Strike’ Squeeze on Supply Sends National House Prices to Another Record—

First American Data & Analytics, a leading national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions and a division of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), today released its October 2023 Home Price Index (HPI) report. The report tracks home price changes less than four weeks behind real time at the national, state and metropolitan Core-Based Statistical Area (CBSA) levels and includes metropolitan price tiers that segment sale transactions into starter, mid and luxury tiers. The full report can be found here.

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale HPI

In the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CBSA, home prices increased by 6.2 percent in October compared with a year ago and increased by 0.3 percent compared with September 2023. See below for price-tier data.

October 2023 National HPI Highlights

The First American Data & Analytics’ non-seasonally-adjusted (NSA) HPI showed that nationally in October¹ 2023:

• Between September 2023 and October 2023 house prices increased 0.4 percent.
• House prices increased 7.0 percent between October 2022 and October 2023.
• House prices reached a new peak for the seventh month in a row in October 2023.
• House price growth reported in last month’s HPI for August 2023 to September 2023 was revised down 0.2 percent, from 0.7 percent to 0.5 percent.

“While the surge in long-term bond yields drove mortgage rates to 8 percent, sellers continued their ‘supplier’s strike’ and continued to hold back housing supply. Preliminary October sale prices continue to indicate that the lack of supply is constraining the market more than sinking affordability, which reached another record low last month,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Nationally, when you can’t buy what’s not for sale, even if you can afford it with an 8 percent mortgage, it’s no surprise that house price appreciation continued for a seventh straight month.”

Year-Over-Year Price-Tier Data for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale Metro Area:

October 2022 to October 2023

The First American Data & Analytics HPI segments home price changes at the metropolitan level into three price tiers based on local market sales data: starter tier, which represents home sales prices at the bottom third of the market price distribution; mid-tier, which represents home sales prices in the middle third of the market price distribution; and the luxury tier, which represents home sales prices in the top third of the market price distribution.

“While resilient first-time home buyer demand and ongoing supply shortages kept price growth in the starter tier of the market strong, the luxury end of the market surprised with unexpected surges in price appreciation," said Fleming. “Luxury-tier buyers typically already own homes and are trading up, despite taking on a mortgage rate on the home they purchase that is well above the rate on the home they sell. The robust luxury trade-up demand indicated by strong appreciation in markets like Anaheim, San Diego, Charlotte and Atlanta is a reminder that the lifestyle and non-financial reasons why people buy homes often supersedes the non-financial reasons why people buy homes."

October 2023 House Price State² Highlights

• The five most populous states experienced the following year-over-year growth in the HPI: Pennsylvania (+8.1 percent), Florida (+4.4 percent), California (+4.0 percent), Texas (+3.8 percent), and New York (+2.9 percent).
• There was one state with a year-over-year decrease in the HPI: South Dakota (-5.1 percent).
• Full 50-state HPI data is available here.

Visit the First American Economic Center for more research on housing market dynamics.

Next Release

The next release of the First American Data & Analytics House Price Index will take place the week of December 11, 2023.

First American Data & Analytics HPI Methodology

The First American Data & Analytics HPI report measures single-family home prices, including distressed sales, with indices updated monthly beginning in 1980 through the month of the current report. HPI data is provided at the national, state and CBSA levels and includes preliminary index estimates for the month prior to the report (i.e. the preliminary result of July transactions is reported in August). The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

The HPI uses a repeat-sales methodology, which measures prices changes for the same property over time using more than 46 million paired transactions to generate the indices. In non-disclosure states, the HPI utilizes a combination of public sales records, MLS sold and active listings, and appraisal data to estimate house prices. This comprehensive approach is particularly effective in areas where there is limited availability of accurate sale prices, such as non-disclosure states. Property type, price and location data are used to create more refined market segment indices. Real Estate-Owned transactions are not included.

Disclaimer

Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2023 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.

About First American Data & Analytics

First American Data & Analytics, a division of First American Financial Corporation, is a national provider of property-centric information, risk management and valuation solutions. First American maintains and curates the industry’s largest property and ownership dataset that includes more than 8 billion document images. Its major platforms and products include: DataTree^®, FraudGuard^®, RegsData^®, First American TaxSource™ and ACI^®. Find out more about how First American Data & Analytics powers the real estate, mortgage and title settlement services industries with advanced decisioning solutions at www.FirstAmDNA.com.

About First American

First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF) is a premier provider of title, settlement and risk solutions for real estate transactions. With its combination of financial strength and stability built over more than 130 years, innovative proprietary technologies, and unmatched data assets, the company is leading the digital transformation of its industry. First American also provides data products to the title industry and other third parties; valuation products and services; mortgage subservicing; home warranty products; banking, trust and wealth management services; and other related products and services. With total revenue of $7.6 billion in 2022, the company offers its products and services directly and through its agents throughout the United States and abroad. In 2023, First American was named one of the 100 Best Companies to Work For by Great Place to Work^® and Fortune Magazine for the eighth consecutive year and was named one of the 100 Best Workplaces for Innovators by Fast Company. More information about the company can be found at www.firstam.com.

¹ The most recent index results are subject to revision as data from more transactions become available.

² The HPI for non-disclosure states and markets that fall within non-disclosures states are not included in this month’s HPI report.

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