Asure Software (NASDAQ: ASUR) continues to execute on its growth strategy with consistently strong results every quarter. The company has nearly doubled revenues since 2020, continued to invest in new products and services to help clients and expand growth, as well as form partnerships with major companies like Amazon.com, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS, SAP (NYSE: SAP) and Workday (NASDAQ: WORK). Yet, the market still seems to be solely focused on the ERTC program, which was halted by the IRS in September 2023. While Asure generated profits from the ERTC program, its core HCM business has always served as a leading source of growth and revenue.
The Texas-based HCM services provider recently reported first quarter 2024 financial results, which continued to demonstrate the company’s strong core business and reinvestment into M&A. Let’s look past the surface to get down to the important takeaways from the quarterly results.
ASUR: Revenue Excluding ERTC Grew 10% From 2023 to $30.7 Million
On the top-line results, Asure reported total revenue of $31.7 million, which was down 4% from the prior year. However, the important metric is, total revenue excluding ERTC, which grew 10% to $30.7 million during the first three months of 2024. While the company’s revenue excluding ERTC grew 10% y/y, the market seems to be more concerned with the top line figure of a 4% decline year over year. This misguided view fails to see the real headline, which is revenues (excluding ERTC), show that its core products and services are continuing to see double-digit growth.
While the street continues to focus on the top line number of a 4% decline year over year in total revenues, which we explain above is the misguided analysis, it’s important to know that the company is growing the core business and adding revenues via M&A. The Q&A portion of the earnings call provided valuable insight detailing the company’s continued focus on M&A activity:
“We’ve made significant progress with acquisitions in the first quarter and expect similar progress in the second quarter. We’ve completed roughly a handful of acquisitions, and we are on track, if not slightly ahead, with our acquisition plans. The purchase prices have been slightly under two times, which we are thrilled about,” stated Asure CEO Patrick Goepel.
Investors should be paying attention to the growth of Asure’s core business and the additions it’s gaining via M&A for its growth strategy. The company has stated that it is making good progress with regard to the M&A strategy which should give investors’ confidence that the experienced management team at Asure will be able to deliver on the goals it has set for the company.
Management Issues Q2 2024 and Full Year 2024 Guidance Highlighting Continued Growth Expectations
In the Q1 earnings release, Asure issued guidance for the second quarter of 2024, as well as full-year 2024. For the second quarter of 2024, the HCM provider estimated revenue between $28 million and $29 million, on an adjusted EBITDA range of $4 million and $5 million. On a full-year 2024 basis, Asure expects revenue between $125 million and $129 million, on an adjusted EBITDA margin between 20% and 21%.
Full-year 2024 estimates are very bullish on a y/y growth basis. In 2023, the company’s core businesses (e.g. ex ERTC revenues) generated total revenue of $101 million. By the end of 2024, management estimates its core business could grow 26% y/y to a range of $125 million to $129 million. The growth engine is still strong and humming along.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is estimated to be between $25 million and $27 million, which reflects a margin range of 20% to 21%. These are figures which are a vast improvement from just a few years ago in 2021 when Adjusted EBITDA was $8M and Adjusted EBITDA margins were 10%. The slide below depicts the real story that Asure is executing on.
Massive TAM Gives Asure Room For Continued Growth
Aside from investing in new products and services, core HCM continues to see a favorable outlook. Asure’s partnerships with SAP, AWS, and Workday help to further elevate the company and its service offerings. In fact, Asure recently began working with their first Workday client, a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.
Furthermore, the market can put aside concerns over pricing power and competition. In the Q1 2024 earnings call Q&A, Chief Revenue Officer Eyal Goldstein stated the company has not seen any pricing pressures. In fact, many of Asure’s competitors continue to shift their focus upmarket, which leaves an underserved SMB market that is ripe for continued growth. This provides an exciting opportunity for Asure to continue dominating the SMB market, while also taking advantage of larger enterprise clients through its quality partnerships.
As far as the total addressable market (TAM) is concerned, Fortune Business Insights recently valued the global HCM market at $28.86 billion in 2023. The market research firm estimates the market could grow from $31.34 billion in 2024 to $63.14 billion by 2032, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1%.
Summary
Overall, growth is still churning along at Asure Software. I would highlight slide 6 in Asure’s investor deck (presented in this article above). This chart very clearly shows the company’s core businesses driving top and bottom-line results forward. There is no other way to put as clearly: Asure’s core businesses are growing at a considerable rate and the future environment continues to look favorable for the company.
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