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Dow Jones Industrial Average
Standard & Poors 500
New York Composite
Center of the Universe
The Site of Economist Warren Mosler
Total initial claims, vehicle sales
July 24, 2021
New claims still running high, as are continuing claims. Federal unemployment benefits expire in about 6 weeks: Same pattern- covid dip, recovery, fade, continuing the weakness that traces back to the...
Mtg purchase apps, housing starts and permits, Saudi pricing vs benchmarks, oil inventories
July 21, 2021
Covid dip, recovery, and now a decline: Covid dip, recovery, and now sideways at levels of some 25 years ago when there were a lot fewer people: Through June, Saudis caused the big dip and recovery,...
Retail sales, consumer sentiment, industrial production
July 16, 2021
This chart is adjusted for inflation. Note the dip, recovery, and leveling off pattern: Dip, recovery, and falling back. Not a good sign: Dip, recovery, leveling off below pre covid levels: The post...
July 06, 2021
Saudis have set in process a continuous increase in the price of oil. This is exactly what happened in 2008. The Fed’s reaction was to hike rates which only made the inflationary impact worse all...
Asian PMI, trade, China services
July 06, 2021
Same pattern only more so: Americans spending more on imports= federal deficit spending that much less inflationary: May exports were $206.0 billion, $1.3 billion more than April exports. May imports...
Bank loans, vehicle sales
July 02, 2021
Fading- heavy and light have fallen back below pre covid levels: The post Bank loans, vehicle sales appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
China, construction spending, housing
July 01, 2021
Seems to showing the same pattern as the US- covid dip, recovery, fade: Same pattern here too: Higher prices bringing out supply? Epic housing shortage may finally be starting to lift (cnbc.com) The...
Personal income, Mortgage apps, ADP private employment, Chicago PMI
June 30, 2021
Transfers coming down is slowing GDP growth: Housing continues to slow/ the post covid bounce is fading: Making a comeback but still a long way to go. This is a major driver of personal income. It also...
Personal income and expenditures, lumber
June 25, 2021
Consumption leveling off at pre covid trend, as personal income growth fades with expiring fiscal support: Fading as federal unemployment comp is being eliminated in several states. By labor day it all...
Housing, unemployment claims, durable goods orders, corporate profits, inventories, commodities
June 24, 2021
Another hint at a cooling housing market: Nearly double pre covid levels indicating a lot of people are still losing jobs every week: This chart is not adjusted for inflation. On an inflation adjusted...
New home sales, existing home sales, crude oil
June 23, 2021
Settling back to pre-covid levels: After cutting price to shut down the higher cost producers, particularly US shale, the Saudis have moved prices back to pre covid levels and may be going higher,...
June 20, 2021
Private sector deficit spending needs to replace fading public sector deficit spending (as benefits expire) to sustain output and employment: A small pick up here but still well below where it would...
Shipping, retail sales, industrial production, NYC manufacturing
June 16, 2021
Another shipping crisis looms on Covid fears in southern China Still elevated though may be returning to trend? Still struggling: The post Shipping, retail sales, industrial production, NYC...
June 12, 2021
A rise in prices from an external shock can result in a slowdown of consumption, but to date fiscal transfers have worked to sustain incomes that support consumption. Expiring federal unemployment comp...
Expiring unemployment benefits, mtg purchase apps, trade, cpi
June 10, 2021
Soft spot in progress, and all federal unemployment benefits expire Labor Day: Still seems to be weakening: Job openings offsetting the prior dip as covid restrictions are relaxed. Hirings coming back...
Oil drilling, vehicle sales, unemployment claims, private payrolls
June 03, 2021
With oil prices working their way higher, so is US oil drilling: Looks like they are falling back to ‘trend’: Still lots of slack: So much for the notion that businesses can’t find employees? Still...
Bank loans, vehicle sales, miles driven
May 30, 2021
Settling back to very low growth, partially because of the increased federal deficit spending: A bit of ‘catch up’ from the prior drop: Computer chip issues: The post Bank loans, vehicle sales, miles...
Personal income, personal consumption, personal savings
May 28, 2021
Personal income has remained elevated for the entire recession due to fiscal policy, and with the supplemental federal unemployment insurance is set to expire by Labor Day personal income will fall...
Employment by wage level, claims, durable goods, pending home sales, steel prices
May 27, 2021
Claims continue to drift lower but are still about double what they were pre covid: Continued claims are also about double pre covid levels: Fell back some and still below pre covid highs. This chart...
New home sales, iron and steel, semi conductors
May 25, 2021
More signs of stagnation: The post New home sales, iron and steel, semi conductors appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Continuing claims, Chicago Fed, air travel, gasoline, miles driven, hotels
May 24, 2021
A lot of people collecting unemployment benefits. Most is gone by labor day: Another hint at a softening: Carbon footprints on the rise but still well below pre covid levels: The post Continuing...
Mtg apps, Architecture index, wheat
May 19, 2021
Moving back down to pre covid levels: Like the other surveys, this can be misleading as it shows the % of businesses showing increases, regardless of the magnitude of the increases: The commodity spike...
Unemployment claims, bank credit, consumer loans, real estate loans
May 17, 2021
Coming down, but still a lot of people collecting benefits :( Counter to what the Fed believes, the 0 rate policy has a damping effect on growth and inflation due to the income interest paid by the...
Employment, births, mtg purchase apps
May 07, 2021
Before Covid, employment growth had already been decelerating due to the tariffs, which continue under President Biden: Births keep falling, and this is not population adjusted: Looks like real estate...
Personal consumption, consumer sentiment
May 04, 2021
Goods are a much smaller component than services: Improving: The post Personal consumption, consumer sentiment appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Mtg apps, China, GDP, continuing unemployment claims, personal income
April 30, 2021
Doesn’t look like much of a housing boom here: China had been expanding: GDP is rising but still has a long way to go: The post Mtg apps, China, GDP, continuing unemployment claims, personal income...
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