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Center of the Universe
The Site of Economist Warren Mosler
Q3 GDP forecast, federal benefits, existing home sales
October 21, 2021
Not good. GDP heading toward recession: Now down vs same month last year: The post Q3 GDP forecast, federal benefits, existing home sales appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory .
Industrial production, home builders index, housing starts, real estate loans
October 20, 2021
Weak again: A bit of improvement but still looking weak: No growth here: No sign that low rates have caused excess lending: The post Industrial production, home builders index, housing starts, real...
Consumer sentiment, oil prices, federal debt/GPD
October 15, 2021
Not looking good: Russians and Saudis now cooperating to set crude oil prices. Not good: Post covid fiscal contraction is underway and debt/gdp is forecast to fall a lot further. Most of the Federal...
Unemployment claims, employment, shipping costs, oil prices
October 08, 2021
Down a bit since Federal benefits expired. This materially cuts gov. spending: A lot worse than expected. They thought the end of Federal benefits would send people back to work. However, a cut in...
Unemployment claims, personal income and consumption, total vehicle sales
October 01, 2021
Who would have thought? This is through August which included Federal unemployment benefits that have subsequently expired. Income is now weaker than it was at the time of this report: Without transfer...
Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, dollar index, CS house prices
September 28, 2021
Familiar pattern: Similar pattern- covid dip, bounce, fade: Remember all the talk about how all the money printing stuff after the crash and for covid, etc. was going to trash the $US, etc.? It’s not...
Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales
September 24, 2021
Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal...
Housing starts, buying conditions for houses, fiscal policy forecast
September 22, 2021
Up a bit but at best moving sideways: Not looking good for gdp unless private sector deficit spending comes to the rescue: (hat tip Patrick Rien) The post Housing starts, buying conditions for houses,...
Consumer credit, jobless claims, commercial real estate index
September 09, 2021
Softening: Down more than expected. This is for the week ending Sep 4, as federal benefits expired. Lots of federal spending expiring: Commercial real estate index dipping: The post Consumer credit,...
New Hires, Economic Optimism index, German sentiment
September 08, 2021
New hires dropped even as job openings rose: Fading fast: The post New Hires, Economic Optimism index, German sentiment appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory .
Rails, bank loans, unemployment rate
September 06, 2021
Looking weak: Nothing good happening here: Tiny glimmer of hope here? Lots more unemployment than the headline number: The post Rails, bank loans, unemployment rate appeared first on Mosler Economics /...
Unemployment claims, trade, vehicle sales
September 02, 2021
Still way above the 200,000 pre covid levels. Makes me wonder why so many people are still losing jobs: Weaker imports is likely a sign of a weaker US consumer: And oil isn’t much of a factor anymore:...
China service sector, Chicago pmi, consumer sentiment
August 31, 2021
Big slump here: Weakness here as well: Collapse in front of expiring federal unemployment benefits: The post China service sector, Chicago pmi, consumer sentiment appeared first on Mosler Economics /...
Unemployment claims, personal income, savings and consumption
August 30, 2021
This has now fallen back to pre covid levels and is likely to go lower after federal unemployment benefits expire: Expiring benefits after next week could leave a serious shortfall: Federal spending...
Pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing index
August 30, 2021
Last week of federal unemployment benefits: Dallas surprises on the downside, but inline with other indicators: The post Pending home sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing index appeared first on Mosler...
New home sales, Richmond Fed, vehicle sales
August 25, 2021
Fading back to trend: Falling back: The post New home sales, Richmond Fed, vehicle sales appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory .
Manufacturing, services, existing home sales
August 24, 2021
And federal unemployment benefits expire in 2 weeks: Back to about where it was heading pre covid, way below last cycle and not where it was expected to be with record low mortgage rates: The post...
Bank loans, rig count, iron ore
August 22, 2021
Still weak: Coming back slowly, but now oil prices are lower: Lots of spiky commodities like iron ore: The post Bank loans, rig count, iron ore appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary...
Philly manufacturing, $US index
August 19, 2021
Not the kind of thing that happens when policy is ‘hyperinflationary’ as feared by many: The post Philly manufacturing, $US index appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory .
China, housing starts, purchase apps, architecture billings
August 18, 2021
Weakness continues: Still declining: Same covid dip, bounce, decline pattern: The post China, housing starts, purchase apps, architecture billings appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary...
Retail sales, homebuilder sentiment, lumber, industrial production, steel
August 18, 2021
Retail sales jumped up with the Federal transfer payments and have more recently started to decline as transfer payments subsided. And the remaining Federal unemployment comp of $300/week expires Labor...
Small business index, lumber price, mortgage purchase apps
August 11, 2021
Working its way lower: Inflation fears may be fading? Getting worse. I guess low rates aren’t the end all for housing… ;) The post Small business index, lumber price, mortgage purchase apps appeared...
Employment, Trade, consumer credit, rails
August 08, 2021
Steady improvement but still a ways to go: And this doesn’t look good: We’re spending more on net imports which is fundamentally a direct benefit for us, if only our govt. knew the appropriate policy...
ADP, vehicle sales, mtg purchase apps, durable goods
August 04, 2021
Not good. Analysts/politicians/voters expected more gains as Federal benefits expired: Not good: Not good: Typical bounce after the covid dip that followed the tariff decline, but so far only back to...
Pending home sales, Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, Saudi OSP
August 02, 2021
Same pattern: Also same pattern of covid dip, recovery, then weakness most recently: US Factory Growth Slows in July The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.5 in July of 2021, the weakest in 6 months,...
New home sales, durable goods orders
July 27, 2021
The mood has changed: Not adjusted for inflation, so in real terms weaker than it looks: The post New home sales, durable goods orders appeared first on Mosler Economics / Modern Monetary Theory .
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