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Thursday Thrust – Low Market Rally Between the Holidays

49,343,700. That's all the trading on SPY yesterday.   The average volume is 100M, but we only hit that one time in the whole month of June and, in those big (relatively) volume days of June 16th, 17th and 18th, SPY fell 5% – what is going to happen to this market if people really try to sell their holdings en masse?       There's a very strong correlation in this market, and any toppy market, between volume and direction.  When the volume is low, the automatic buying done by ETFs (there are very few short ETFs) floats the market higher as they simply buy at market prices at the day's end.  That's why you have all those late-day rallies.  If there are not a lot of people selling (complacency), the market drifts higher.  And who is putting in this " dumb money " every day?   Well you are – it's your 401K, your IRA, your 529 plan that is doing this.  That's where most of the ETF money comes from… Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume Jun 23, 2021 423.19 424.05 422.51 422.60 422.60 49,343,700 …

49,343,700.

That's all the trading on SPY yesterday.   The average volume is 100M, but we only hit that one time in the whole month of June and, in those big (relatively) volume days of June 16th, 17th and 18th, SPY fell 5% – what is going to happen to this market if people really try to sell their holdings en masse?     

There's a very strong correlation in this market, and any toppy market, between volume and direction.  When the volume is low, the automatic buying done by ETFs (there are very few short ETFs) floats the market higher as they simply buy at market prices at the day's end.  That's why you have all those late-day rallies.  If there are not a lot of people selling (complacency), the market drifts higher.  And who is putting in this "dumb money" every day?   Well you are – it's your 401K, your IRA, your 529 plan that is doing this.  That's where most of the ETF money comes from…

Date Open High Low Close* Adj Close** Volume
Jun 23, 2021 423.19 424.05 422.51 422.60 422.60 49,343,700


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