In 2016, businessman Jim Justice ran for governor of West Virginia as a Democrat and won. Two years later, Joe Manchin was reelected to his senate seat as a Democrat in the Mountain state. Today, Justice is a Republican poised to flip that seat and maybe the Senate itself.
No state better represents the anachronistic Democratic Party of the 20th century than West Virginia, nor has any state retained so many of these dinosaurs for so long. But that seems about to change as the new Democrats abandon the center.
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I was invited to breakfast at a Chick-fil-A with about eight or nine guys ranging from their 20s to early 50s who meet up to talk about theology mainly, and a little politics. Aside from my confusion as the only Roman Catholic present as to the detailed intricacies of Annabaptist belief, I was struck by the fact that 25 years ago at least half these guys would have been Democrats. Thirty-five years ago, they all would have been.
This was blue, union, West by God Virginia back then. It featured the kind of conservative Democrat who you just don’t see much of anymore.
One of the men I met was a new pastor at a local church who only moved to the Eastern Panhandle about a month ago. Frocked, he gave the blessing over our meal, as loud as you like in the middle of a fast-food restaurant, and it was great. Nobody thought it strange at all.
The good pastor was from Mississippi and was asked by one of the fellas how he felt about the Confederate battle flag being removed from the state flag back in 2020. He had supported the decision at the time, on the basis of, why give offense? But then he saw how slippery that slope had become with the toppling of Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt statues, just as Donald Trump had warned of.
But he had more to say, "Yes, there is racism, I saw it, it's real, but it diminishes with every generation." The newcomer was pronouncing exactly the kind of nuance that the West Virginia Democrat had long embodied.
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The last ticket topper for the party of Jefferson and Jackson to win West Virginia in a presidential race was son of the south Bill Clinton in 1996. The 2000 election was razor-thin.
Since then, the Old Dominion’s younger and victorious sibling is not a swing state, but a weird, centrist senator state, and according to the guy who invited me, Jim Justice might just keep it that way.
"He used to be a Democrat," my buddy said, "Do you think he could be a GOP version of Joe Manchin?" I parried. "Yeah, I do," he replied.
"You think Manchin could've beaten him if he ran?" I persisted.
"No, but it's closer," he said.
West Virginia is not a swing state, but it borders Pennsylvania and Virginia, and the people you meet here might out Herod Herod in terms of embodying the swing state mentality. Who gets the job done is the question. It's why Maryland Republican Larry Hogan is tied for the Senate seat next door in blue crab cake country.
Clearly, the centrist voters of the mid-Atlantic are vital to the Harris campaign. That's why she suddenly all but says, "What? No! I love fracking, I frack in my own backyard right next to the chili peppers Walz can’t eat." But her party, and its arrogance and elitism, may have already closed the door on these once-Democrat West Virgnians, and their swing-state cousins.
Are there enough suburban women to replace the Godly men I had breakfast with who used to be comfortable with the Democratic party? Maybe. But West Virginia is a lost opportunity for the Democrats. It is a state born in the blood of the union that gives both parties a chance. Right now, it doesn’t seem like Democrats are interested.
