The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model that applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. The performance and full details of a model portfolio based on the out-of-sample signals of the Trend Model can bsoe found here.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmPrHCZw-URgSdnORet65zg6_9veP8gfiiUfQKE1ZDNOTM7lcp1j9a-ZW-gxyBae96BxW427Q-8A9qXd_e6mRhzyMezkchwl4rE1uT7y9xrcgWrU9JTxynmdrOX3o-dNetUPI35EDR48Fe6gHZEDwdHfomaQLDYVMKwAmIcCBG2zfF7MX2CNNG3KeVjw/w400-h290/Trend%20Model%20perf.png)
My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the email alerts is updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij5i6t5QAhqENz2YvV3_cDbD2pp0BdHmvfIVpEsMe_XiblTiKwzrNnBxOjTFaSa8Tcr6dhY5J12SZ_IqFOOHLEFE23FbL8D1-Qzn5cWWm4CAiIbUrtAVMqZaL7TH8cfFNx6wNX_DHkP6mnMHnUqCG8bM3T8irI3QM-n5Rf29oVCcke208HAzlgFO8IZA/w400-h291/Inner%20Trader.png)
The latest signals of each model are as follows:
- Ultimate market timing model: Buy equities*
- Trend Model signal: Bearish*
- Trading model: Neutral*
Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of those email alerts is shown here.
Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.
Another test of the 2022 lowsHere we go again. The S&P 500 tested its 2022 lows on Friday while exhibiting a positive 5-day RSI divergence. Selected sentiment readings are at off-the-charts levels. Both the bond and stock markets are poised for a relief rally, and the FOMC meeting Wednesday could be the catalyst.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg81Q4BFG4PqaXfLWMAhKGX_vybswXVjbtFCLS1Sl85eKUJixDeEtWPATnDBmfqsL-PzZVphiaG9nVyAFUW5yyiTGgiWuGjTV7BeRJGPpGtDQ0PZ7mUnusdJ-pLacMKQho2bQZl9F6eG3iSn_0qSkUKGj2mxXe1sFBzE31QtpNTUUnJKYN26IrynwoKew/w400-h240/SPX.png)
The full post can be found here.
Sale in MayWe would also like to announce our "Sale in May" event. Get 50% off a monthly subscription for the first month. Click here to subscribe.